China has once again raised tensions in the Indo-Pacific by demonstrating a possible plan for an invasion and blockade of Taiwan. Recent reports suggest that China may attempt to act on its ambition to seize Taiwan by 2027. If China turns its military threats into real warfare, it could destabilize the region and trigger global consequences that surpass those of the Russia–Ukraine war.

The Indo-Pacific accounts for one-third of global economic activity and is emerging as a key geoeconomic hub. Any conflict in this region would endanger maritime peace and economic stability far beyond East Asia.

As Taiwan prepares to defend itself, the US security and strategic community is watching closely and will draw lessons from the Russia–Ukraine war. Despite having inferior military capability, Ukraine defied expectations and has resisted a larger and better-equipped invader for over two years. This example may help the US deter China and support Taiwan in the event of war.

The porcupine strategy

During the Cold War, both the US and the Soviet Union both saw examples of proxy warfare, where weak states prolonged conflict through external support, such as the US war in Vietnam and the Soviet war in Afghanistan. Ukraine has shown similar grit and effectiveness in its resistance.

Russia began its invasion with a strategy resembling blitzkrieg, aiming to paralyze Ukraine by destroying military and strategic sites. Russia likely expected a swift victory, but the war has dragged on for years. Ukraine’s response has followed the “porcupine strategy,” a doctrine of asymmetric warfare designed to make invasion costly and slow.

William S. Murray, a research professor at the US Naval War College, proposed the porcupine strategy in 2008. It calls for fortifying a weaker state’s defenses to exploit the attacker’s vulnerabilities. This approach avoids direct confrontation and instead focuses on survival, delay and erosion of enemy advantage.

American application of Nixoon Doctrine, named for US President Richard Nixon, enabled Ukraine to accomplish this. This doctrine calls for the US to support allies without deploying large numbers of troops.

According to King’s College London professor Zeno Leoni, the porcupine strategy includes three defensive layers. The first is intelligence, often supported by a stronger partner. For example, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) likely coordinates with Ukrainian intelligence to prepare for Russian offensives. The second layer is internal resistance, including counteroffensives and civilian support. Ukraine formed an International Legion and mobilized civilians to support its forces. The third layer is geography. Ukraine’s complex urban terrain has slowed Russian advances.

How Ukraine used American aid effectively

Ukraine was successful in halting the Russian invasion, but it was unable to eject Russian troops from much of the territory that they had taken. Because of this, Russia shifted to a strategy of attrition. It aimed to wear down Ukraine’s morale and resources. Yet Russia has failed to achieve decisive results. So, why has Ukraine managed to resist so effectively?

Ukrainian forces have shown adaptability and commitment. The used technology and local knowledge to delay and repel Russian advances. Retired US Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges has noted Ukraine’s effective use of US-supplied radar. Ukrainian troops not only learned the technical aspects but also developed creative tactics. Ukraine is also building its own drones using Western technology.

Ukraine also denied Russia control of the skies. Its forces have used Stinger missiles to shoot down low-flying helicopters and S-300 surface-to-air systems to stop higher-flying aircraft. This has forced Russia to fire missiles from long distances, reducing their effectiveness.

Further, Ukraine has waged a strong information war. Its leaders moved quickly to use international forums to build support. As a result, Russia has faced sanctions, removal from the SWIFT system and widespread global criticism.

Given the examples of Vietnam and Afghanistan, it is tempting to draw the conclusion that a weaker state can always prevail as long as it has external support. The 1977–1978 Ogaden War, however, challenges this view. In this conflict, the US supported Somalia against the Soviet-aligned Ethiopia. Despite receiving US backing, Somalia suffered a humiliating defeat. Why? Somali forces failed to assimilate US weapons and training effectively. This example shows that external support alone does not guarantee success. A weak state must also have the will and capacity to make use of the support it receives.

Now, the same strategy is being implemented with Taiwan; it would be interesting to see how much success this strategy yields in the event of a Chinese invasion. Will Taiwan choose to create a strong maritime defense or choose to go for offensive aerial operations to counter Chinese attempts to launch waves of attacks? 

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.