The threat of terrorism is growing in three key areas around the world. First, there is the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), especially its branch in Afghanistan known as ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K). Second, different terrorist groups are fighting for power in Syria, Afghanistan and West Africa, with a special focus on Syria. Third, smaller jihadist groups are gaining strength, like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and all-Qaeda’s Syrian unit Hurras Al-Din. Thirdly, this web of terror affects the rest of Asia, Africa and Europe, enabling to the mobilization of fundamentalist Islamic coalitions, further leading to a threat of transnational terrorism.

ISIS has shown its ability to act quickly and violently. In March, it carried out deadly attacks in Moscow. Reports show ISIS remains active in the region, with nearly 700 attacks in Syria this year alone. The group funds itself through extortion networks run by its intelligence branch, Emni, which helps it maintain its power.

The civil war in Syria left a power vacuum after the toppling of President Bashar al-Assad’s government. This vacuum has led to conflicts between jihadist groups. These recent conflicts further destabilize the Middle East and threaten global security. More minor terrorist factions are also regrouping, taking advantage of Syria’s fragile security. These groups may partner with larger organizations, worsening the threat in the region and beyond.

The shadow of terror falls over India.

The conflict in Syria has increased the threat of terrorism in India. Groups like Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), the Indian Mujahideen (IM), ISIS-K and al-Qaeda may escalate their activities. JeM, a Pakistan-based terrorist organization, has long targeted India, particularly in the disputed region of Kashmir. Its founder, Azhar, has publicly supported global jihadist movements and praised the events in Syria as a victory for their cause.

The Indian Mujahideen has been linked to numerous bombings in urban centers across India, targeting areas with large crowds to maximize casualties. This group, rooted in homegrown extremism, has aligned itself with global jihadist networks. Its involvement in Syria marks a troubling shift, showing how Indian operatives are integrating with international terror organizations like ISIS.

The 1992 demolition of the Babri Masjid, a mosque built in the 16th century, remains a rallying point for Islamist groups. Hindu activists tore it down, claiming it was constructed over the birthplace of the Hindu deity Ram. The event triggered riots and longstanding religious tensions in India. For groups like JeM and IM, it serves as a powerful symbol in their propaganda to recruit and incite violence.

JeM’s recent statement celebrates jihadist successes in Syria and ties these events to its broader narrative of avenging perceived wrongs against Muslims. Azhar, JeM’s leader, has a long history of inflammatory rhetoric and terrorism aimed at India, particularly in Kashmir. His support for jihadist groups in Syria underscores the growing connections between regional and global terror networks.

The Indian Mujahideen and Jaish-e-Mohammed could revive their networks and operations against India. Syria’s instability creates opportunities for JeM to regroup and form new alliances with regional and global jihadist groups active in the area. Masood Azhar, JeM’s leader, has significant global influence. In 1993, he was a key figure in spreading jihadist ideology in Britain’s largest mosque network.

In 2019, India presented evidence to the United Nations Security Council linking Azhar to both al-Qaeda and ISIS, leading to his designation as an international terrorist. This highlighted JeM’s deep ties to global terror organizations and reinforced concerns about a resurgence of its activities.

Al-Qaeda, though weakened in South Asia, could also use Syria’s chaos to rebuild. The group has a foothold in Syria and may negotiate with Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), who played a major role in fighting the Assad regime.  Al-Qaeda may expand Beyond Syria, especially in Bangladesh, where radical elements have grown since the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Under the Yunus government, Muhammad Jasimuddin Rahmani, leader of the al-Qaeda-affiliated Ansarullah Bangla Team, was released, further raising concerns about renewed activity.

Pakistan’s role is another factor. Syria’s instability allows Pakistan to strengthen ties with jihadist gro ups as it regains political leverage. Previously, Assad’s government supported India on issues like Kashmir, but Assad’s ouster could shift alliances. Pakistan also hosts many al-Qaeda-linked groups. For example, Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami carried out major attacks in India, such as the German Bakery bombing in Pune and the 2006 Varanasi bombings.

Azhar has even formed a new faction, Mujaheed Tanzeem, linked to al-Qaeda, to focus on terror operations in Jammu and Kashmir. The JeM/al-Qaeda connection, along with Pakistan’s support, could lead to a new wave of terrorism in India, particularly in Kashmir if left unchecked. 

The Haqqanis and the power struggle in Afghanistan 

The threat of an Islamic caliphate and global Jihad and the focus on South Asia remains a danger to both regional and global security. Recently, the group demonstrated its strength by assassinating Khalil Haqqani, Afghanistan’s Refugee Minister and a senior Taliban figure. This killing underscores the ongoing struggle for power in Afghanistan, particularly involving the Haqqani network.

The Haqqani network, a Taliban-affiliated militant group, has long been a key player in Afghanistan. After the US invasion in 2001 and intensified airstrikes in 2008, the Haqqanis fled to Pakistan’s tribal areas near the Khost border. There, they built strong ties with Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which used the network to counterbalance the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) and maintain influence in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. The ISI also deployed the Haqqanis against Indian targets, including a 2008 bombing at the Indian Embassy in Kabul.

This alliance has weakened in recent years, particularly since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021. The Haqqanis have clashed with the Taliban’s supreme leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, over issues like taxation in Haqqani-controlled areas and the treatment of women. The Haqqanis, seen as comparatively moderate, oppose Akhundzada’s hardline policies.

Sirajuddin Haqqani, the leader of the Haqqani network, is now ideologically and politically at odds with Akhundzada. As the Haqqanis lose influence in the Taliban’s government, ISIS-K is seizing the opportunity to expand its territorial and operational control in Afghanistan. These instances, if left unchecked it can lead to conflict between ISIS-K and Taliban and later resurgence of ISIS in South Asia.

ISIS-K and the Haqqani network have a complex history. In 2017, they cooperated to a degree with an agreement allowing ISIS to operate in Pakistan. The Haqqanis, an offshoot of the Afghan Taliban,  even brokered a deal through the ISI, permitting ISIS-K some freedom in Pakistan in exchange for avoiding attacks there. Despite these past arrangements, ISIS-K now seems determined to challenge the Haqqanis and other factions for dominance in Afghanistan, where ISIS-K wanted to overthrow the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan was acting as a mediator between the two to avoid spillover of the conflict.

The region’s shifting dynamics have questioned previous alliances and agreements. Power struggles in Syria and beyond have created a volatile environment where past commitments no longer hold. ISIS-K’s growing influence in Afghanistan is a significant concern for South Asia, especially for India. If left unchecked or if counter-terror responses are not taken on time, Afghanistan could become a new battleground for competing factions, including ISIS-K, the Taliban, and the Pakistani Taliban (TTP). This development would heighten regional instability and pose new threats to India and neighboring countries.

Israel has launched Operation Bashak Arrow, a series of airstrikes targeting Syria’s military and strategic infrastructure. The goal is to prevent these resources from falling into the hands of terror groups. The operation has dealt a significant blow to Syria’s military capabilities within hours. Meanwhile, the United States is communicating with HTS, a jihadist group, to track and eliminate ISIS fighters in Syria. A recent US airstrike killed 12 ISIS members.

These actions by Israel and the US aim to contain the threat of terrorism, but military strikes alone may not be enough. Lasting security will require a careful combination of military action and political strategy to prevent Syria from becoming a safe haven for jihadist groups. Without a comprehensive approach, the region remains at risk of becoming a hub for terror that threatens global and regional stability.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.