Mexico is experiencing a profound shift in its political landscape. The first weeks of Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo’s administration are marked by concerns of democratic backsliding, power centralization, a potential constitutional crisis and rampant violence.

The legitimacy of the June 2 election results is not in question. The concern lies in the exceptional concentration of power in the presidential position as well as the instability that will arise from such unchecked authority. Observers’ previous expectations of a moderate administration are slowly fading. The inability to address root causes of violence and the disregard for institutional checks and balances raises questions about the government’s commitment to democratic processes. 

Rampant violence shows cracks in public security

Violence remains rampant across Mexico. Over a thousand killings have been recorded in Sheinbaum’s first 13 days in office alone. Among the most significant incidents were the beheading of Alejandro Arcos Catalán, the mayor of Chilpancingo, and the recent killing of Marcelo Pérez, a priest and social activist in Chiapas. Additionally, military personnel were accused of negligence after six migrants and a nurse were killed in the crossfire of a shootout between the National Guard and suspected drug cartel vehicles. 

While Sheinbaum has proposed a new security plan, it does not diverge significantly from her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s strategy. Obrador’s approach, which was to create the National Guard, a nationwide police force, resulted in the most violent presidential term in Mexico’s modern history. Furthermore, the Mexican Congress passed a controversial reform that places the National Guard under the Ministry of Defense. Sheinbaum supports both of these decisions and vows to strengthen the National Guard even more. Critics argue this will only further militarize public security and fail to address the root causes of violence.

Judicial overhaul has consolidated executive power even further

This failure to address the rampant violence isn’t the only concern Mexican citizens have regarding Sheinbaum’s administration; the new president has also shown a blatant disregard for checks and balances. The recent judicial reform is the clearest example. This reform mandates a complete overhaul of the judicial system, replacing all the judges in the country, at all levels, with new ones elected by popular vote. However, more than half of the appointees will be filtered by Morena, the governing party, through “expert committees.” 

The reform also reduces the requirements to become a judge, which used to involve examinations and a long technical career. This has raised serious concerns about the politicization of the judiciary and the potential loss of judicial autonomy. Critics warn that this reform could threaten core democratic principles, including the separation of powers and adherence to the rule of law.

The judicial reform has also the potential to spark a constitutional crisis. Numerous judges have already filed amparos (legal injunctions) challenging the reform’s constitutionality. They argue, among other things, that the legislative procedure to pass the reform was deeply flawed. However, Sheinbaum’s government has largely disregarded the rulings and doubled down by proposing a new constitutional reform that shields any constitutional changes, even retroactively, from judicial oversight. The main argument used by the president and the governing party is that “a few judges” cannot overturn “the will of the people.” This move has alarmed many human rights advocates and legal experts. They view it as a regressive step in the defense of human rights and a violation of Mexico’s civil commitments.

Mexico’s future remains unclear

Despite political uncertainty, day-to-day operations in Mexico have remained largely unaffected, partly due to anticipation around the evolving political context. The business community and political observers alike are closely watching how Sheinbaum will navigate internal tensions within Morena and its coalition, as well as external challenges, including potential disruptive policies and hardball negotiations under Trump’s second presidency.

In addition, Mexico’s global economic and political ties, such as the USMCA trade agreement, serve as external constraints on the government’s ability to implement drastic changes. The country’s diversified economy also limits the scope for dramatic policy shifts. External factors such as trade, debt obligations and international relations stabilize Mexico’s economy during this period of political transition. While it is true that internal political dynamics and violence present serious challenges, these external influences may help curb some of the more drastic reforms that threaten democratic checks and balances.

It is clear that Mexico faces significant challenges and uncertainties. Strengthening democratic institutions, maintaining checks and balances and protecting the electoral system’s capacity for power alternation are essential for ensuring stability and upholding the rule of law. Equally important is the need to respect institutional democratic processes, even when they produce outcomes that may not align with all preferences. 

The author is a professor in the Social and Political Environment department at IPADE Business School.The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not represent the official position of IPADE Business School.

[Cheyenne Torres edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.