India and China may start a water war due to Beijing’s construction of the world’s largest dam on the Yarlung Zangbo, or Brahmaputra River. The project, which is expected to disrupt water flow to millions downstream and cause a future water catastrophe, is aimed at energy requirements. Beijing is expected to invest over four times the 250 billion yuan ($34.5 billion) total expenditure of 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) to build the dam at Nyingchi City’s Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon.

The article explores the potential effects of China’s dam on India’s Brahmaputra River, its implications for India-China ties, and the possible challenges India may face in opposing this action. It questions whether China’s ambitious project will alter South Asia’s geopolitical landscape or if India can mitigate risks and protect its water future. The article suggests options for India to avoid the conflict.

Impact on the Himalayan environment

Medog County (Motuo in Chinese) in Nyingtri (Nyingchi) prefecture in the Tibet Autonomous Region, which borders the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, is where the hydropower facility would be constructed. There is already a lot of research showing the detrimental effects of hydropower projects in the Himalayas. This project will undoubtedly change the river’s natural flow, increasing with dam size. The number of people needing to relocate to make room for the dam and reservoir it will generate is unknown. However, concerns over water security have also been raised. China may use the dam to regulate the water flow downstream, which will most likely impact native flora, wildlife and water flow patterns. 

There are significant ecological repercussions downstream from any dam on a river. China may use dam operations by hiding information about them, including start and completion dates, effects and displacement of people. This could threaten the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta in Bangladesh, which is crucial for fishing and agriculture. The dam’s sediment holding capacity could reduce soil fertility and accelerate deltaic erosion. Additionally, the dam could give China more influence over its neighbours, potentially exacerbating geopolitical tensions in the delicate region.

The Medog hydroelectric dam, located in a geologically unstable region, poses significant concerns due to its large water volume. China has constructed or planned to build 193 hydroelectric dams in Tibet since 2000, with about 80% being massive or mega-sized. Over 60% are still in the proposal or planning stages. If completed, these dams could demolish places of worship, force over 1.2 million people to relocate and destroy historic monasteries. The new mega-dam also presents environmental risks and could significantly influence nearby nations, particularly India.

Using water as a geopolitical weapon

With this enormous project, China aims to use the Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon’s massive hydroelectric potential and to meet its carbon neutrality targets. It is expected to be larger than the Three Gorges Dam. However, the project’s ramifications extend well beyond electricity production; it also raises significant concerns about how it will affect Bangladesh, India and the delicate environment in the area. A lifeline for millions of people in Bangladesh and India is the Brahmaputra, also called the Yarlung Zangbo. When this dam is built, China will have considerable control over the river’s flow, which might lead to droughts or flash floods downstream. 

Concerns about China using water as a geopolitical weapon and creating a dam for quid pro quo for Bangladesh and India in its already volatile relationship with India are raised by this extraordinary control. Some respite is offered by the Brahmaputra’s distinctive tributary system, which guarantees that about 48% of its water comes from India. The project still faces enormous obstacles for the ecology and the millions of people who depend on the river.

What options does India have?

India might lead a counter-coalition of nations that share Transboundary Rivers, creating a shared institutional framework for improved transboundary management of shared rivers. Such an organization may combine best practices for water management and establish an alliance called the “South Asian Water Assessment Network” (SAWAN) while providing more negotiating power concerning China. Such an alliance may subject any upstream infractions to collective economic fines. 

India and other South and Southeast Asian nations must learn to negotiate jointly with China if collaboration and the fair use of shared water resources are to continue to be the goal. China must participate in multi-lateral transboundary water policy forums to create a mutually advantageous management architecture and data sharing standards to be a true global leader. Plans for dam projects and hydrological data should not be used as leverage in negotiations against governments downstream. 

Will water diplomacy have any space between China and India? India needs to demonstrate a stronger desire to interact with China to navigate the modern world and build relationships among leaders. To achieve this, India must understand their differing perspectives on diplomatic engagement and have a well-defined goal supported by domestic strategic clarity. Regardless of its inclusion in the strategy process, setting water diplomacy is crucial, primarily since the Government of India reportedly seeks to increase its political and economic ties with China. To manage the risks of building certain dams, India must neutralize water dependency on China and counteract Chinese state influence domestically with more credible plans.

Water diplomacy involves dialogue and cooperation among stakeholders like Bangladesh, China, India, organizations and communities to address water issues and disputes. It aims to resolve water crises and conflicts over shared resources, fostering regional stability and peace. Hydropower, a reliable and affordable source of clean electricity, can also cause conflict. However, water can also be a tool for peace. If water diplomacy fails, long-term water reliance from China could pose a significant threat. Therefore, a diplomatic water deal is needed to address these issues.

China and India use dams as border markers and water investments to establish regional hegemony in the Brahmaputra basin. The water wars argument suggests that increasing population and decreasing water supplies will lead to decreased per capita availability and increased demand, worsened by climate change. Conflict may arise over the crucial resource if a tipping point is reached for globally shared rivers. Bangladesh and India may need to engage diplomatically with China to resolve the issue within the framework of “water for all beings, war for none.” The weaponization of nature will not leave space for human habitation.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.