January 22, 2025 06:23 EDT
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| Dear FO° Reader, A big part of Fair Observer’s mission is to “educate citizens of today and tomorrow.” And believe me, we need to keep educating ourselves on a daily basis. There’s always something old, forgotten, new or misunderstood to discover, clarify, reframe and put into perspective. Some news stories bubble up for a while and then disappear. Other things float around, like forgotten toys in a pool or at the beach. They are there, half-forgotten. Often, a story that is of dire importance to the people or country experiencing it can go nearly unnoticed by the rest of the world. Serbia, where student and people protests have recently swept the nation, is one of these stories.  A small country with wide implications Most of the world seems either not to have noticed Serbia at all or to have written it off with, “Oh, those leftist students are always making noise.” But we are trying to understand the situation. Why have over 70,000 people taken to the streets for more than a month to protest government corruption? Perhaps they’ve had enough of a leader who has wielded enormous power since 2000. Protests erupted in early November after the collapse of the concrete canopy at Novi Sad railway station, which killed 15 people. The demands? Accountability for government negligence, publication of all documents related to the station’s reconstruction, confirmation of the identities of those suspected of assaulting students and professors and the initiation of criminal proceedings against them. Additionally, all public officials involved in assaults must be relieved of their duties. In response to student demands, the government arrested former Serbian Construction Minister Goran Vesić on November 21, 2024 and released several hundred documents regarding the reconstruction of the Budapest–Belgrade railway line, including upgrades to the Novi Sad station. However, students argue that critical documents are still absent. On December 30, the Higher Prosecution Office in Novi Sad stated that it had begun publishing additional materials. Protests are still going strong.  So, FO° summoned the wisdom and experience of one of our authors, Jean-Daniel Ruch. Jean-Daniel was Switzerland’s ambassador in Serbia and Montenegro in 2012. We wrote him an email and he readily agreed to have a conversation with us. After the usual greetings and catching up, FO° Chief Strategy Officer Peter Isackson asks, “How stable or unstable is Serbia’s government?” Jean-Daniel takes a deep breath. There have been several upheavals or protests — at least four in recent years that he can recall: in 2017, 2023 and 2024. Aleksandar Vučić, the current prime minister, has always managed to get them to die down. One issue is that these movements seem unable to produce a credible leader capable of challenging the government. We cannot forget that only 25 years ago, NATO bombed Serbia, bypassing the UN Council. Yet, on October 5, 2003, 700,000 people protested against Milosevic in Belgrade, leading to his downfall — protests we now know were supported by Western powers. There also seems to be growing fatigue with Vučić dominating the political landscape. I recall that just a year ago, his party was accused of rigging municipal elections. Jean-Daniel adds that, nevertheless, Vučić ensures stability for now despite facing pressure from multiple sides. The Americans recently sent a letter urging his government to reduce reliance on Russian gas and oil. Naftna Industrija Srbije, Serbia’s main distributor, is largely Russian-owned. Additionally, many Russian entrepreneurs in Serbia have brought favorable prospects to the country, which cannot be overlooked. I add that Serbia is also negotiating with the European Union, though only 33% of Serbs appear to support membership. From the European perspective, Serbia is viewed as aligned with Russia and criticized for its refusal to recognize Kosovo’s statehood. When Kosovo declared independence in 2008, large-scale protests erupted in Belgrade and other cities. Demonstrators, including nationalist groups and ordinary citizens, expressed anger over perceived Western interference and the loss of Serbia’s historic province. Peter comments that, in its unique way, Serbia’s political quandary reflects a broader epidemic of political sclerosis spreading across Europe and affecting several liberal democracies in the West. Positioned on the cultural frontier inherited from the Cold War — between East and West — Serbia’s geography and recent history significantly limit its political maneuverability. The existential crises now confronting Europe’s former pillars and economic leaders, Germany and France — both grappling with electoral uncertainty and a surge of far-right nationalism — stem from the same epidemic. Traditional parties fail to present credible leadership alternatives. As United States President Donald Trump begins a new mandate and Serbia wrestles with its historical ties to a Russia no longer leading its camp, Europe is left questioning whether its place in the US-led alliance remains sustainable. Europe reluctantly accepted the burden as US President Joe Biden committed NATO to a seemingly endless war on its fragile eastern fringes in Ukraine. However, Trump’s return may cut off the supply of bullets altogether. His previous four-year term made it clear to Europe’s keenest observers that “America First” can often mean “Europe last.” In France and Germany, like in many nations these days, none of the traditional parties seem able to inspire the population with a vision for the future. In France, attention is turning to Dominique de Villepin. Known for his heroic opposition to US President George W. Bush’s 2003 plan to invade Iraq, de Villepin’s independent image positions him as a potential consensus leader in a moment of crisis. De Villepin has cut ties with all existing parties. His success or failure in addressing Macron’s evident failures will hinge on a media eager to exploit his potential for charisma, even if it's just a sideshow for now. However, the political establishment across the spectrum — and perhaps more critically, the Zionist lobby — will likely mobilize to prevent the one major political figure willing to openly critique Israel’s actions from emerging as a providential leader. In conclusion, Peter and I are happy with the conversation with Jean-Daniel, whose experience as an ambassador in high-tension environments has taught him to look beyond and beneath the headlines to uncover the strategies and tactics that shape political power dynamics. But beware — we have more questions. Let’s start by asking why, in so many developed nations, there’s such a scarcity of credible opposition figures capable of challenging mediocre leaders and parties that, despite their shortcomings, remain firmly in power? But Western liberal democracies are not the only ones affected by the epidemic. Why not look further east, all the way to South Korea, where, in response to President Yoon Suk Yeol’s attempt to declare martial law, South Korea’s democratic institutions and cultural values resisted his power grab? Do we see any credible leaders capable of stepping into the vacuum? Amitiés, Roberta Campani In conversation with Peter Isackson and Jean-Daniel Ruch |
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Comment
Roberta,
Most citizens have become consumers. People find the exercise of functioning collectively too onerous. The collapse of community has not helped either.
Outside of Switzerland, democracy is young and fragile. So, expect mediocre leaders and more concentration of power until citizens come together to demand something better.
Look forward to what others have to say!
Atul