Discussing the implications of US policies on Europe and the growing threat to European unity, Atul Singh and Sebastian Schäffer explore the geopolitical challenges Europe faces and its role in the unfolding global order. Sebastian paints a grim picture for Europe, describing how the United States, long regarded as a trusted ally, has started to undermine Europe’s interests. He refers to several recent developments, including US President Donald Trump’s uncoordinated talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s comments about Europe’s responsibility for its own security and JD Vance’s assertion at the Munich Security Conference that Europe’s greatest threats lie within, rather than from Russia or China. These actions, Sebastian argues, reflect a shift in the global order, one where the US no longer plays a stabilizing role in Europe, leaving the continent vulnerable.
Sebastian believes Europe is now at a critical juncture. He emphasizes that while the European Union has been forged through crises in the past, the current moment is one of “endgame.” He warns that without decisive action, the world could enter what he calls the “authoritarian century,” marking the decline of democratic values. The failure to act swiftly could result in Europe’s disintegration, with some nations drifting towards authoritarianism or even exiting the European Union, as seen with Brexit.
The growing divide within Europe
Europe is unable to form a unified response to crises like the war in Ukraine. Sebastian notes that countries like Hungary are already aligning themselves with Russia, while other European leaders are hesitant to fully commit to defending Ukraine. The struggle to forge a united European front in the face of external threats could undermine the EU’s future, potentially leading to a collapse of its unity and the values it represents.
Sebastian highlights that the EU’s internal divisions are further compounded by economic, political and ideological rifts between member states. While some countries are increasingly skeptical of the EU’s centralizing tendencies, others remain firmly committed to deepening integration. These conflicting priorities are especially evident in the differing responses to Russia’s aggression and the broader security challenges in Europe. The rise of Eurosceptic and far-right movements in several EU countries further complicates efforts to present a united front against external threats. These movements could weaken the EU’s capacity to act decisively and protect its democratic ideals, especially if populist leaders gain more influence in key European nations.
The growing divide within Europe also threatens to undermine the EU’s cohesion in the long run. If member states can no longer agree on fundamental issues such as defense policy and foreign alliances, the future of the EU’s integration process could be in jeopardy. Sebastian warns that Europe is at a crossroads: It must either unify and strengthen its institutions or risk fragmenting under the pressure of internal and external challenges.
The role of nationalism and sovereignty
The rise of nationalism and calls for greater national sovereignty have also played a significant role in undermining European unity. Sebastian points out that while the EU has long been a model of economic integration, its political ambitions have been increasingly challenged by nationalist movements across the continent. Leaders like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and France’s Marine Le Pen have openly criticized the EU’s centralization of power and pushed for policies that prioritize national sovereignty over European cooperation.
These nationalist movements, often fueled by economic dissatisfaction and cultural anxiety, pose a significant challenge to the EU’s future. While the EU has been successful in promoting peace and economic prosperity, it has struggled to address the concerns of those who feel left behind by globalization and integration. In countries like Hungary, where there is a growing alignment with Russia, the EU’s ability to hold member states accountable for their foreign policy decisions is increasingly questioned. This growing nationalism could eventually lead to further fragmentation as countries prioritize their own interests at the expense of EU solidarity.
At the same time, Sebastian acknowledges that there is a countercurrent within Europe. Leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron have pushed for deeper European integration, proposing ideas such as a common European defense force and a more unified foreign policy. However, as Sebastian points out, this vision faces significant obstacles from nationalist governments and a general reluctance among some member states to cede more sovereignty to Brussels. The future of European integration will likely depend on the ability of political leaders to reconcile these competing forces and find a path forward that balances national interests with the need for a stronger, more unified Europe.
European security and unity
The discussion also touches on the future of European integration. While some view the economic benefits of the EU as its primary success, Sebastian refutes the notion that democracy and human rights should be secondary to economic prosperity. He argues that the EU’s past enlargements were not merely economic but also about stabilizing young democracies in Central and Eastern Europe. The integration of these countries has proven successful, both politically and economically, and demonstrates the EU’s broader role in promoting peace and democracy across the continent.
Sebastian also explores the possibility of Europe evolving into a “Fortress Europe,” advocating for a common defense and security architecture. However, the varying threat perceptions among member states make such a vision challenging. For example, while Poland faces a direct threat from Russia, countries like Portugal may not see the same urgency. This discrepancy in threat assessment could make it difficult for the EU to maintain its cohesion and respond effectively to the rising geopolitical challenges.
The conversation addresses the broader implications of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While some argue that a realpolitik approach is needed to end the bloodshed, Sebastian contends that a peace agreement that rewards Russian aggression would set a dangerous precedent. Europe, he argues, must not abandon its commitment to democratic values and should resist rewarding an aggressor like Russia. The future of Europe depends on maintaining its unity, strengthening its defenses, and staying true to the principles that have guided its integration for decades.
Bullying, geopolitical tensions and the US
International bullying, particularly the US’s, is increasing. Atul points out that the US is acting like a bully in international politics, citing its territorial ambitions toward Greenland and Canada, and threatening stance towards allies like Panama. He questions whether standing up to bullies would also mean confronting the US. Sebastian agrees, emphasizing that Europe must take a stronger stance against these actions, particularly with regard to threats toward nations like Denmark and Canada. He criticizes the US’s behavior, likening it to an imperial mindset, with Trump pushing for peace in regions like Gaza and Ukraine while simultaneously threatening allies.
Sebastian highlights the challenges facing Europe, including its military and economic weaknesses. He notes that Europe lacks the resources to defend Ukraine adequately, pointing to the lack of a unified defense strategy and economic instability. Additionally, Europe faces internal challenges, such as the rise of far-right political movements, which complicates its ability to form a unified front against external threats. In response to these realities, Sebastian discusses the necessity of a balanced vision for Europe — one that recognizes the importance of European integration, but also addresses the rising challenges posed by extreme political factions and the growing influence of external powers like the US and Russia.
The social market vs. turbo-capitalism: Europe’s model of stability
Shifting to a deeper analysis of Europe’s political landscape, the discussion turns to the larger ideological battle between the social market economy of Europe and the turbo-capitalism promoted by the US. Sebastian defends Europe’s social market model, pointing out that despite criticisms, it has been successful in fostering economic growth while ensuring a welfare state that protects citizens in times of need. This contrasts with the US’s system, where the lack of social safety nets can lead to economic ruin for individuals in the event of a crisis. Sebastian stresses that Europe’s regulatory framework, while sometimes criticized for being bureaucratic, has led to the protection of workers’ rights and a more stable economy compared to the volatility seen in turbo-capitalist systems.
Atul echoes this sentiment, noting that in the US and India, a lack of such protections can lead to catastrophic outcomes for ordinary people. Sebastian acknowledges that while Europe is not without flaws, especially in the context of rising far-right influence and political fragmentation, there is still a possibility for reform and progress. He argues that Europe must better communicate the advantages of its social market model, including labor rights, healthcare and worker protections, as the antidote to the negative effects of extreme market-driven capitalism.
The conversation concludes with a sobering look at the ongoing war in Ukraine. Sebastian acknowledges that any ceasefire will come with significant costs, particularly for the Ukrainian people, who will bear the brunt of the conflict’s consequences. He argues that Europe, while bearing the financial burden of reconstruction, must work together to strengthen its collective security and economic model, ensuring that it is not solely dependent on the US.
Ultimately, the EU’s role in securing peace and rebuilding after the war is crucial. While the road ahead is challenging, Sebastian remains optimistic that European cooperation could pave the way forward, even in the face of mounting global tensions.
[Lee Thompson-Kolar edited this piece.]
The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.
