The South Asian region has always been under the nose of geopolitical condensation between high-medium powers. Since the Cold War, the area has threatened the balance of power. It was Americans and Soviets; now it is Americans and Chinese. Interestingly, as middle powers progress towards great and rising powers, like India and the US, are expected to shift their focus towards Asia, the South Asia landscape may see a heightened strategic competition scenario in the coming time.

The Great Game 

In the past few years, especially after the Bangladesh crisis, India’s traditional sphere of influence was under tension as India’s eastern and western frontiers became unstable in the west— the Afghanistan-Pakistan region and east-Bangladesh witnessed a dramatic coup. The eastern frontier after the Dhaka episode became more tense as India was already negotiating a tense situation in Myanmar after a coup in 2021, keeping its northeast borders secure from drug and arms cartels, which had surged ever since the Manipur crises began in 2023. Measured diplomatic and watching from the fence approaches were a kind of mood-observing behaviours, which were no more effective given dynamically evolving strategic security where, at one end, Pakistan is pressing hard to develop strategic depth, especially after the Afghanistan debacle and Bangladesh crises. On the other hand, China used show-off tactics, and the clandestine drug-arm cartel was attempting to weaken the northeastern region, especially the Indo-Myanmar border. If we pay closer attention to recent regional developments in and around South Asia, undercurrents challenging Delhi’s Sphere of Influence are quietly building up. 

Asim Malik, Pakistan’s Intelligence Chief, visited Dhaka after decades, indicating that Pakistan is opening a sense of strategic depth against India after its Afghanistan strategy has backfired. If nurtured well, Pakistan can develop an interesting opportunity. First, sustainable strategic strategies against India by staging terror proxy groups this is a strategy that has been in an eroding position for a few years. Second, it sets the stage for Pakistan-China-Bangladesh strategic and economic cooperation, which can help Pakistan with its short-term financial problems. Third, suppose the above two things get into the flow. In that case, Pakistan can carve out tactical sustainability and pursue an anti-Taliban campaign in full throttle, which is currently limited due to multiple crises at home.

Easier said than done: Pakistan–China axis 

Pakistan’s diplomacy in Bangladesh, China and Turkey may be an effort to create a strategic competition that includes Bangladesh within the Pakistan-China axis against India. As noted earlier, this diplomatic maneuvering by Pakistan is significant, at least in the long term. However, it remains challenging for Pakistan to find a silver lining in this escalating diplomatic game in South Asia.

First, there is the absence of full backhand support in Bangladesh. Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus’s regime received clandestine support from the US, but as the US underwent a regime change, it adjusted to the evolving Asian geopolitical realities. Bangladesh would have limited options to bank entirely on China as Dhaka must also keep the US in its court. The void in full backhand support will create problems for Yunus, who will face mounting pressure to call early elections in Bangladesh.

Second, the Taliban threat in Pakistan has recently increased. Tajik militant organizations supported by the Taliban have established their presence in Afghanistan with the backing of Al Qaeda. The threat to Pakistan from Afghanistan is growing, especially after the ISIS-Khorasan resurgence, which is attempting to establish itself in Afghanistan. If it goes out of the grip, then this security nightmare is enough for Pakistan not to make much noise in the neighborhood.

Third, China and Turkey are close strategic partners to Pakistan and may carefully deal with it. Turkey has already observed a moderate response to the backdrop of Pakistan’s President’s visit. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently made a statement that India and Pakistan should resolve the Kashmir issue through dialogue, unlike years ago when Turkey used to staunchly back Pakistan on the Kashmir issue. The backdrop of the visit shows some such signs. China plans to shift its focus toward the US, similar to its approach during the Trump administration. At the same time, the US intends to confront China directly, particularly in the South Asia theater. Such diverted attention and efforts of Pakistan’s all-weather partners will make initiating a strategic competition or great game-like situation targeting India challenging. This highlights Pakistan’s intricate challenges in the geopolitical game in South Asia.

India’s deft diplomacy and growing depth with the US 

India’s effective negotiations and organized tactics drive adjustments to adapt to the changing political scene in South Asia. On the one hand, this deft diplomacy will help moderate and negotiate with emerging threats and attempt to increase and secure India’s traditional sphere of influence.

New Delhi’s efforts to engage with the Taliban and even allow them to send a representative to Afghanistan’s embassy, which has seen almost no diplomatic presence since the Taliban’s takeover, were notable. The most notable deft diplomacy was with Bangladesh and Myanmar. New Delhi engaged with top BNP leaders and attempted to influence and moderate relations with Bangladesh, which underwent significant change after Sheikh Hasina’s ouster. Last year, New Delhi invited Myanmar’s rebel group to negotiate a deteriorating security situation at its northeastern border, which impacted Manipur. 

The increasing clout of India’s deft diplomacy puts New Delhi in a good spot not only to progress but also to contest the changing power dynamics of South Asia. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to the US has led to tectonic movements in the power balance of South Asia. The US and India are deepening their strategic ties with initiatives like COMPACT(“Catalyzing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce & Technology”) and TRUST (“Transforming the Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technology”) to explore multi-dimensional areas of cooperation, especially in technology and defence, which can build a strong US axis in developing multilateral forums such as Indo-Pacific, enlarging strategic and political salience at the regional level. 

However, what is intriguing is Trump’s offer of F-35 jets to India. This offer, which New Delhi should seriously consider, has the potential to influence the power balance in South Asia. India does not possess standalone air striking capability and does not have fifth-generation fighter jets. Suppose India agrees to this deal after considering its acquisition needs and calculations. In that case, it will be a game-changer, putting India in direct competition with China regarding air superiority. Air denial operations and air striking capabilities against Pakistan would significantly increase, giving India an option for carrying out more precise and in-depth strikes inside Pakistan without much noise, as the F-35 comes with a high degree of stealth. India’s increase in offensive and deterrence capabilities will surely stir the China–Pakistan axis, but that’s what the US wants. They want to push China to such a limit where the US can significantly influence Asian power dynamics against China to contain its overreaching sphere of influence in and around the South and Southeast region. At the same time, the US continues to develop its political and strategic clout in the region through the West- South Asia Connect and Indo-Pacific theatres.

With changes happening in West Asia and Europe, there is ample space for India’s deft diplomacy and the Indo-US relationship to explore geopolitical and geostrategic aspects. This exploration will open South Asia to significant multilateral connections, ultimately contributing to India’s strategic rise in the world order. However, a caveat in this bright possibility is the dangers of misadventure and miscalculations by those who will come under intense pressure to respond to India’s strategic rise and Asia’s changing power balance.

[Liam Roman edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.