[On December 31, 2024, we predicted seven developments for 2025 and boldly went where only fools, angels and astrologers dare to go. So, what can we expect in 2025? To borrow words from the military, a more volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) world. This is Part 7 of a seven-part series. You can read Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5 and Part 6 here.]
France and Germany are the two beating hearts of Europe. Both of them ended 2024 without a budget. Both countries face new elections in 2025.
France’s tumultuous 2024
France went through a tumultuous year. Fair Observer Chief Strategy Officer Peter Isackson and Fair Observer Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh explain the crisis in the French Fifth Republic in the piece embedded below. Traditional parties have imploded and new blocs have emerged. Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement national (RN) is on the ascendant. Although it won only 126 seats out of 577 in the French parliament, it received the most votes.
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The left-wing Nouveau front populaire (NFP) won 193 seats while President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble won 159. The two parties oppose RN’s social and political far-right stance, but NFP and RN are closer on economic policy than either is to Ensemble. In 2024, the three parties could not agree upon a budget. Michel Barnier’s government fell, making him the shortest-serving prime minister of the Fifth Republic.
An ineffective government and rising AfD worry Germans
Germany’s traffic-light coalition — so-called because red, yellow and green are colors of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens, respectively — fell because the parties could not agree upon a budget. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government has proven to be indecisive and ineffective. The three parties could rarely agree on anything even as the German economy contracted for two consecutive years.
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The far-right Allianz für Deutschland (AfD) is on the rise, sending shivers down the spine of a country where the specter of Adolf Hitler and the Nazi party remain strong. Yet the ineffectiveness of traditional political parties, a sinking economy and fears about immigration are fueling AfD’s rise. Repeated acts of terror by some Muslim immigrants have added to the fear.
Who will lead Europe?
In France, Germany and other EU countries, the clash of cultures between secular Europeans and religious immigrants is only too real. The fact that the latter are often poor and congregate around mosques makes them more Islamist than their countrymen back home. Note that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan gets a much higher percentage of votes in France, Germany and the Netherlands than he does in Turkey.
As problems mount, the French Fifth Republic is on the verge of collapse while Germany still suffers from a postwar crisis of confidence. The operative question is simple: Who will lead Europe?
In 2006, former CIA officer Glenn Carle told a group of German officials, “If Germany does not lead Europe, Europe will not be led.” These officials were horrified at having to assume the responsibilities they had long avoided so as not to be tarred as the new Nazis. Only Germany can lead Europe, and it may eventually be AfD that leads. What happens then?
Throughout Europe, the far-right is on the rise. Slovakia, Hungary, Italy and the Netherlands are some examples. Economic strain, fears of immigration and concerns about social cohesion are at play. None of these concerns are going away in 2025.
[Anton Schauble and Lee Thompson-Kolar edited this piece.]
The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.
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