Mexico and the EU are at a critical juncture, with their interests aligning in ways that could strengthen their diplomatic and economic relationship. The recent leadership changes in both Mexico, with Claudia Sheinbaum’s election, and the EU, with Ursula von der Leyen’s reappointment as Commission President, present an opportunity for a renewed strategic partnership. However, their efforts to deepen collaboration will face challenges, including navigating the shifting priorities of a new American administration and addressing historical tensions over issues like colonial legacy and economic imperialism. Despite these hurdles, both Mexico and the EU have much to gain from a strengthened partnership, particularly in areas like trade, climate policy and emerging technologies. By focusing on shared priorities, such as sustainability, green energy and digital transformation, Mexico and the EU can address their mutual goals and shape a future of cooperation that benefits both regions

Mexico and the EU have maintained diplomatic relations since 1960, but only formalized regular political dialogue with the signing of the Global Cooperation Agreement in 1997. In 2008, the two furthered their bilateral relationship by establishing a Strategic Partnership, which helped strengthen their collaboration across political, security, environmental and socio-economic issues.  

In 2023, the EU and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean (CELAC) States signed a declaration with ambitious commitments. This EU-CELAC summit, the first in eight-years, signals a renewed commitment to collaboration. However, there has been limited follow up. Mexico, as a versatile Latin American bridge between North and South America, is well-positioned to lead in fulfilling these goals and should seize this momentum. Mexico also significantly benefits from high foreign direct investment (FDI), tourism and trade with Western countries. While the United States and Canada contribute the largest share, the EU became Mexico’s second-largest source of FDI in 2023.

Despite these links with Europe, Mexico sometimes resents what it perceives as enduring Western economic and cultural imperialism. Most recently, Mexico demanded that Spain apologize for its colonial exploitation in Mexico. When Spain refused, Mexico snubbed the king of Spain by not inviting him to Sheinbaum’s inauguration. This dispute reflects a deeper disagreement over the legacy of European colonization in the Americas, which could strain the Mexico-EU relations in key areas such as economic ties and security cooperation. 

Bolstering the economy 

The EU is Mexico’s third-largest trading partner and second-largest export market, with bilateral trade reaching over €81 billion in 2023. Mexico and the EU conduct trade according to the terms outlined in the 1997 Global Cooperation Agreement. 

Despite a mutual desire to modernize and reaffirm the Agreement, progress has stalled since 2019. Alleged problems with transparency and civil rights protections have sparked opposition to reforming and renewing the Agreement. European proceduralism and Mexico’s ambivalence regarding the Agreement’s impact on the country’s energy sector have further delayed the ratification process.  

Alicia Bárcena, Mexico’s outgoing foreign minister, identified the modernization of the Agreement as one of the top three foreign policy issues facing the incoming Sheinbaum administration. However, prospects for mutually adopting the modernized agreement appear promising. Sheinbaum’s new foreign minister, Juan Ramón de la Fuente, has expressed his support for ratifying the agreement. 

De la Fuente also announced that Mexico would host a German delegation as the first official visit from a foreign government under Sheinbaum’s administration. This strategic decision highlights Germany’s role as Europe’s largest economy and the world’s fourth largest, after the United States, China and Japan. It signals that despite the dispute with Spain, Sheinbaum’s administration will work to strengthen ties with EU countries. 

Beyond trade, the tourism relationship between Mexico and the EU is becoming more complicated. Mexican tourism declined in 2024, with European competition likely contributing to this decline. At the same time, the EU’s share of international tourists to Mexico has remained stagnant since the COVID-19 pandemic. 

For the Mexican tourist industry to recover, the Sheinbaum administration must convince international travelers that they are going to tackle the underlying issues affecting tourism, starting with Mexico’s high crime and violence rates.

The security balancing act

The EU also faces significant challenges with its opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This, combined with Mexico’s ongoing battle with cartels, and the fact that both issues have extended beyond their geographic boundaries, is likely to strain the Mexico-EU security relationship.

Mexican cartels have supplied cocaine to European criminal groups since the 1990s, and recently, some cartels have refined cocaine within Europe. A 2022 joint report by Europol and the US Drug Enforcement Administration revealed that the EU has also become a key transit point for Mexican cartels moving methamphetamine to Asian markets.

In response, the EU has increased security cooperation with Mexico through programs like the Europe, Latin America and Caribbean Programme of Assistance against Transnational Organized Crime (EL PAcCTO), which was renewed for its second iteration in 2023. The EU is also negotiating a data-sharing agreement with Mexican law enforcement agencies to improve the detection and prosecution of cartel activities in Europe. 

However, European and Mexican interests diverge on the EU’s primary security concern: Russian revanchism. EU member states, particularly Poland, have been among Ukraine’s ardent supporters since the 2022 Russian invasion. In contrast, Mexico has maintained a neutral stance and has taken actions that have frustrated both Russia and the West. Mexico voted in the United Nations to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, co-authored a resolution on aid to Ukrainian civilians with France and abstained from a vote on suspending Russia from the Human Rights Committee. 

Despite this, Mexico has criticized the EU Parliament for arming Ukraine and has made controversial decisions, such as allowing Russian soldiers to march in its annual Independence Day parade in Mexico City. The EU, for its part, is concerned about Russian influence operations in Latin America intended to shape the popular perception of the war in Ukraine given that Mexico shows signs of a significant Russian intelligence presence. If these disagreements intensify, they could hinder Mexico-EU security cooperation.

Greening the partnership  

A key strength in the European-Mexican relationship is their shared commitment to investing in science and technology. Since 2005, Mexico and the EU have maintained a bilateral agreement that facilitates dialogue and identifies potential areas for cooperation through the EC-Mexico Joint Science and Technology cooperation committee. In 2020, both sides agreed to renew and strengthen their collaboration, particularly in renewable energy and sustainability. The EU offers various frameworks for Mexico to engage with, including the Global Gateway Investment Agenda mechanism.

Last October, the Global Gateway forum outlined concrete steps for Team Europe, the European program aimed at delivering more sustainable and effective development aid, to work with Mexico. Several announced priorities focused on sustainability and green energy production. Among them was a shared emphasis on their respective green taxonomies and ensuring investment flowing into and out of Mexico align with green standards. Additionally, the European Investment Bank signed a letter of intent to support Plan Sonora, a sustainable energy project in Mexico. 

President Sheinbaum has expressed significant interest in continuing to invest in Plan Sonora to position Mexico as a leader in lithium and solar energy on the global stage. She has also announced plans to establish a Ministry for Science, Humanities and Technology and Innovation, signaling that environmental concerns will be a strategic priority for her government.

The EU continues to seek partners who can supply critical raw materials to ensure a smooth transition to a green economy and reach its green agenda ambitions. Competition from China, Russia and the United States has led the EU to ramp up its partnership in Latin America as its influence in Africa wanes. 

Given Mexico’s lithium potential, the EU should continue to invest in the partnership and support the scaling up of resource extraction. With Sheinbaum’s climate science background and her prior role as Secretary of Environment in Mexico City, there is optimism regarding Mexico’s climate future. However, skepticism remains about her ability to distance herself from her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), and his strong ties to Mexico’s fossil fuel industry. Now is an opportune moment for the EU to leverage Mexico’s new leadership, encouraging the country to fulfill its climate commitments and advance shared climate goals.

Future-proofing technology 

Building on Mexico’s climate potential, the EU can also play a key role in shaping Mexico’s approach to emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI). As Mexico advances its AI legislation, it could benefit from the EU’s regulatory experience, particularly with initiatives like the Digital Services Act and Artificial Intelligence Act. In 2024, the EU Commission established the AI Office to streamline and enforce the AI Act throughout the EU. As countries around the world navigate the AI regulatory landscape, the AI Office has prioritized becoming “a global reference point.” As Mexico moves forward with AI legislation, it could look to the EU for guidance. 

Beyond AI, technology policy aligns well with the priorities of both parties. Mexico’s current administration places a high priority on digital policy, and the newly-established Federal Digital Transformation Agency aims to modernize Mexico’s government by consolidating digitization efforts across various agencies. One key goal is to streamline operations, such as improving tax collection efficiency. Much of this expertise comes from Sheinbaum’s success in transforming Mexico City into a digital capital during her tenure as mayor, where her reforms brought over 70% of public interactions online. 

The EU should seize the opportunity to work with Mexico’s digitally-savvy administration. Past efforts, such as the 2017 dialogue to strengthen their digital markets and share strategies for digital economies, should be expanded. Europe can support Mexico in its journey toward digital regulation and technological modernization, and both can collaborate on sharing best practices as they face similar challenges in the digital world. 

As the EU finalizes its new commissioners and Sheinbaum prepares for a budget presentation, domestic realities will shape their respective foreign policies. However, both parties share common ambitions that could be pursued through a strengthened strategic partnership between Brussels and Mexico City. 

For Mexico, deepening its partnership with the EU could diversify its economic relationships and enhance its role as a bridge between Europe and Latin America. For the EU, deeper engagement with Mexico provides an opportunity to strengthen its geopolitical influence and secure vital resources for its green agenda. Mutual respect, clear priorities and a shared vision for sustainable development will be crucial in forging a relationship that advances interests of both sides and positively impacts regional relations.

Ultimately, the future of this partnership depends on Mexico and the EU’s willingness to tackle challenges together, innovating their approaches to diplomacy and cooperation. If they do so, they have the potential to transform their relationship into a model of 21st-century international partnership—one that acknowledges the complexities of the past while advancing a future shaped by shared goals and mutual prosperity.

[Kaitlyn Diana edited this piece]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.